The Denver Nuggets might have finally presented Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra with a riddle he can’t solve.
In each of the Heat’s previous three series, Spoelstra found a way to locate a strength in his team that matched with one of the opponent’s weaknesses. That, along with the franchise’s trademark physical toughness, commitment to execution and relentless effort was enough to carve a remarkable path all the way to the NBA Finals.
But he now faces a rival coach in Michael Malone who demands all of that from his team as well — along with a few advantages in size and skill that Spoelstra is finding harder to counter.
Spoelstra admitted as much after the Heat’s Game 3 loss Wednesday night. Referring to the Nuggets’ two-time MVP center Nikola Jokic and point guard Jamal Murray, he said, “You have to expect there to be elite-level talent in the Finals and both of those guys are elite-level talent. At our best version, we find ways to overcome that, make it tough on them, and then overall not lose the majority of those physical, 50-50 battles.”
But if the Nuggets match the Heat’s physicality, what can Spoelstra have his team do to still find the necessary edge to even the series on Friday night and not fall into a 3-1 hole facing potential elimination back in Denver’s mile-high altitude?
He has two choices: play the bigger lineup that he used in Games 2 and 3, or return to the quicker, faster lineup he used in Game 1. Considering that the Nuggets won Game 1 and figured out a strategy that allowed them to pull away in the second half of Game 3, it’s not an easy decision. But what he decides to do could very well determine whether Miami is able to extend the series.
The answer could lie in what transpired in the fourth quarter of their 109-94 loss in Game 3.
That’s when Spoelstra went back to his Game 1 strategy of playing a smaller, faster lineup, keeping power forward Kevin Love and center Cody Zeller on the bench in favor of reserves Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson and Haywood Highsmith. The Heat won the battle in the period in fastbreak points, 6-2, and points off turnovers, 7-0. They also won the turnover battle, 5-0, using an array of traps and double teams to force Murray into all five miscues.
Going smaller, of course, invites the opportunity for Aaron Gordon to play the role he played in the first game, scoring 16 points, 14 of them coming at or around the rim, as he used his size advantage to bully both Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent. But considering Murray and Jokic found ways to shift the defense by beating their man and then slipping the ball to Gordon when Love came to help, it might be worth the gamble. Despite Love’s presence through the first three quarters, Gordon still collected 11 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Conversely, he was scoreless in his six minutes in the final period and only had one rebound.
The potential advantage of playing smaller and faster is that it would make it harder for Murray and Jokic to remain effective while staying on the floor for nearly the entirety of the game, as they did in Game 4. Murray played all but three-and-a-half minutes and Jokic played all but four. Forcing Malone to lean more heavily on the supporting cast, particularly guards Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, could be advantageous, with neither one of them being particularly effective offensively. In Game 4, Brown finished with five points on 1-of-5 shooting and Caldwell-Pope had six points on 1-of-4 shooting, four of his points coming on free throws in the final minutes, as the Heat tried to extend the game by fouling and putting Denver the line.
To be fair, both Brown and Caldwell-Pope contributed defensively, helping to contest the Heat’s 3-point shooters, who missed 24 of their 35 long-range attempts. Miami also did not shoot well in Game 1 from beyond the arc (13-of-39), but that was due largely to missing open looks. Thirty of those shots were deemed open — no defender within six feet — and the Heat missed 19 of them. Recreating those and this time knocking them down would be a potential solution.
There obviously are no easy answers for Spoelstra or the Heat at this point. But finding a way to force the Nuggets to rely a little more on their less-than-elite talent might be one.
Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.
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