For World Series hopefuls, adding a piece at the deadline can be a luxury. For teams still vying for a spot in the playoffs, it can be a necessity.
In recent years, the Dodgers fell strongly into the former camp. They’ve won at least 65% of their games in each of the past four seasons, including a franchise-record 111 wins last year. This season, though, their deficiencies are more glaring, particularly during a month of June in which they dropped 10 of their first 15 games.
Their 41-33 record has them in third place, a spot they haven’t finished since 2011. They’d still be a wild-card team if the season ended today — but just barely, 2.5 games ahead of the Phillies for the final spot. Their .554 winning percentage would represent their lowest mark over a full season since 2012, when they finished 86-76, eight games back of the first-place Giants.
Considering their offense has scored the second-most runs in the National League this year, it’s clear which side of the ball they struggle with most.
Over the past six years, the Dodgers’ starting pitching ERA has ranked either first or second in the majors. Even after Clayton Kershaw’s seven scoreless innings Tuesday and opener Brusdar Graterol’s two clean innings Wednesday, their rotation ERA this year is 4.28, a full run worse than it’s been in any of the past five years and a mark that ranks 14th in the big leagues.
And yet, starting pitching has not been the Dodgers’ biggest crutch on the mound.
Their bullpen currently sports the worst ERA in the National League (4.88) and the lowest mark of any team other than the 19-57 Athletics (5.51). It’s a staggering issue for a Dodgers team that had a top-five bullpen ERA in the NL each of the past seven years.
“I think we’ve gotten away from how we go about things,” manager Dave Roberts said this week. “There’s obviously been a lot of talk about the bullpen, but I think within that, there’s still things that defensively we can do to not give away bases, to catch the baseball.”
The Dodgers shifted more than any team last year and have been hurt by those restrictions this year, dropping from first in defensive efficiency last year to 10th this season. They’ve also been hurt by the larger bases and pickoff limits, allowing more steals than any team in baseball.
Beyond the rule changes, injuries have also played an obvious role in their inconsistencies.
Julio Urías, who finished last season with an NL-best 2.19 ERA, has not pitched in a month due to a hamstring strain. Dustin May had a 2.63 ERA and career-best 0.94 WHIP over his first nine starts before being sidelined by a flexor strain. Tony Gonsolin had a late start to the year after injuring his ankle in the spring and has dealt with issues bouncing back between starts. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, is undergoing a physical and mental reset on the injured list after pitching to a 7.16 ERA over his first 12 starts. Rookie Ryan Pepiot, who was expected to begin the year in the rotation, has not pitched this year due to an oblique strain. Michael Grove, who was recalled after Pepiot got hurt, spent a month on the IL with a groin strain.
All the injuries forced the Dodgers to call up their top prospects more rapidly than they might have otherwise preferred, to varying degrees of success.
While Gavin Stone allowed 16 earned runs over 10 innings in his first three starts before getting optioned, Bobby Miller had a 0.78 ERA through his first four starts before stumbling this past weekend for the first time in his young big-league career. Emmet Sheehan, meanwhile, tossed six no-hit innings in his first major-league outing last week after getting the call-up straight from Double-A. But even that extraordinary performance ended in defeat at the hands of the Dodgers‘ bullpen, which surrendered Sheehan’s 4-0 lead in a 7-5 loss to the Giants.
Though year-to-year relief volatility is to be expected, the Dodgers couldn’t have predicted their bullpen would be this unstable, particularly with Graterol, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Yency Almonte all returning. Phillips has filled in admirably as the team’s primary closer, but Vesia is 0-4 with a 7.58 ERA, Almonte has a 6.03 ERA and opponents are hitting .274 against Graterol.
Of their 20 pitchers to come out of the bullpen this year, half have an ERA over 6.00. Daniel Hudson is expected to assist before month’s end, but it’ll be difficult for the Dodgers to claim an 11th division title in 12 years unless the current cast of characters taps into its previous form.
Of course, there’s always another solution.
Late June is earlier than most teams want to consider trades. A lot can happen with more than a month of action remaining before the Aug. 1 deadline, and this year could be particularly quiet considering how many teams remain in playoff contention.
Still, it seems reasonable to assume the Dodgers will want to add to their pitching staff at the deadline when that time comes.
As of Thursday, 10 teams (six National League, four American League) are more than five games back of a wild-card spot. Among that group, here are some names who could potentially help the Dodgers in the second half.
RHP Lucas Giolito (and basically the entire White Sox pitching staff)
Every club in the American League Central currently has a losing record, which makes these next few weeks crucial as teams within the division consider whether to buy or sell.
At 32-44, the White Sox are only 5.5 games back. However, given the number of talented rentals on their staff who could help a contender, they need to seriously weigh the likelihood of competing this year against the value those players could bring back. Should the White Sox be willing to sell, a team like the Dodgers — in need of both starting and relief (and shortstop) help, with a multitude of highly regarded prospects to offer — would make a strong match.
In recent years, the Dodgers have added on the fringes in their bullpen but have typically only bolstered their rotation at the deadline when a true difference-maker became available (see: Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer). The White Sox have that in Dylan Cease. Despite his step back in this season’s first half (4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), last year’s Cy Young runner-up offers the highest upside in the White Sox rotation. However, he’ll also be the costliest.
Cease won’t hit free agency until 2026, adding considerably to the amount an inquiring team would need to surrender to acquire his services. In addition, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has reported that the White Sox are telling teams at this point that they may only be willing to trade expiring contracts.
If that’s the case, Giolito, a Los Angeles native enjoying a bounce-back season, might be a likelier match.
The White Sox also could offer a number of attractive rentals in their bullpen, where Keynan Middleton is enjoying his best major-league season (2.52 ERA, 32 strikeouts in 25 innings) and Reynaldo Lòpez has a career-high 28.6% strikeout rate (despite an elevated 5.52 ERA and 12% walk rate).
Of course, there’s also the possibility of a Joe Kelly reunion. He was a fan favorite in his three years in Los Angeles, his underlying statistics are better than his current 4.37 ERA would indicate, and the White Sox could stand to part with him even if they don’t go through with a full-on fire sale.
Like Cease, Bieber has another year on his contract and would cost more than a rental. But the Guardians — at 35-38, with their playoff odds seemingly decreasing daily (now at 31.8%, according to FanGraphs) and in desperate need of offensive help, with a bevy of young pitchers already making their mark in the rotation — have to at least listen to offers.
It will be interesting to see how much a team would part with to acquire Bieber, whose respectable 3.51 ERA this year comes with less desirable underlying numbers. He is not the same guy who won the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — his strikeout rate that year was 41.1%; it is 17.5% this year — but could still be a useful piece to bolster a playoff rotation.
The Flamethrowers
Perhaps the most likely player to be dealt at the deadline, Aroldis Chapman has found his velocity again in a rebound season with the Royals.
He’s averaging two ticks higher on his fastball compared to last year in New York, and after signing a one-year deal this offseason, he doesn’t make much sense to hold onto for a 20-win Royals team. His expected ERA (2.67) is even lower than his much-improved 2.84 actual ERA, and his 40.9% strikeout rate puts him in the top 1% of the league. He is, however, walking batters at a career-high rate.
Considering Vesia’s struggles, either Chapman or teammate Amir Garrett could provide the Dodgers another left-handed leverage option. They’re both on expiring contracts, though Garrett has not pitched since May 29 due to an elbow injury.
Even in the weak NL Central, the Cardinals are already nine games back of the division lead (and 10.5 games back of a wild-card spot), which could force them into selling. That would theoretically make Jordan Hicks available. Though known for his velocity — his sinker is averaging 100.8 mph this year — he is limiting opponents to a .130 batting average against his sweeper. After struggling mightily out of the gates, Hicks, a free agent after this season, has a 2.10 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 25.2 innings since April 18.
RHP Alex Lange and the Tigers bullpen
Lange uses his hard curveball more than half the time, and opponents are batting just .175 against the pitch with 29 strikeouts. But he’s also holding opponents under .200 against his sinker and changeup while converting on 11 of 13 save chances.
He’s under control through 2027, and the Dodgers are not often a team to part with the pieces required to obtain a long-term bullpen asset, but he’s a name to watch as the Tigers have fallen back to Earth after surging in May. If a rental is more attractive, Tigers relievers Chasen Shreve (3.86 ERA) and José Cisnero (2.20) could help bolster a playoff bullpen.
Rockies LHP Brent Suter
This, of course, would require Colorado to actually make moves at the deadline. The Dodgers have gotten the best out of Rockies pitchers recently in Almonte and Tyler Anderson, and this one wouldn’t require a reclamation. Suter is inducing a ton of soft contact on his way to a 4-0 record and 2.81 ERA out of Colorado’s bullpen.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
