Welp, looks like one of the weirder, more unpredictable NBA drafts is coming Thursday!
Here is Jason McIntyre’s final assessment of what will happen after the fabulous Frenchman hears his name called at No. 1.
1. San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama, F, France
His floor as a rookie is 20 points per game, to go with 10 rebounds and three blocks. That is, unless the Spurs — who ushered in the phrase load management during the Kawhi Leonard era — limit his minutes and games played.
Is Victor Wembanyama a lock to be the best player in this draft class?
2. Charlotte Hornets: Scoot Henderson, G, G League Ignite
Last month, I had Henderson here. Last week, the odds shifted considerably from Henderson going third to second. The Hornets brought him and Brandon Miller in for a second workout, which might be posturing, or they really are uncertain on the pick.
3. Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Miller, F, Alabama
Will the Blazers keep this pick, or trade it in a package in an effort to get Damian Lillard help? I can’t see anyone leapfrogging Miller here if he’s still on the board, even after he recently lost 13 pounds due to mono.
4. Houston Rockets: Cam Whitmore, SF, Villanova
If the Rockets whiff on James Harden (increasingly likely), they’ll probably attempt a sign-and-trade with Toronto for Fred VanVleet, in which case the Raptors would be picking here. If it is Toronto, keep an eye on Arkansas guard Anthony Black, who I had going 13th to Toronto in my last mock draft. I’ll keep Whitmore here, as the history of long 18-year-olds drafted outside the top three have a strong history (Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, among others).
Nick warns fans to slow down on the Victor Wembanyama hype
5. Detroit Pistons: Bilal Coulibaly, Wing, France
Lots of chatter that the 6-foot-7, 18-year-old with a 7-3 wingspan won’t fall past Toronto at No. 13. Detroit has gone with guards in the top seven of the last three drafts, they have three big men, but their lone pure wing is Bojan Bogdanovic, who is 34. If you believe Coulibaly has more upside than the Thompson twins, you make this pick.
6. Orlando Magic: Amen Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite
The Magic don’t know what they have a PG, with Markelle Fultz only signed for one more year and Jalen Suggs waiting behind him. They really like the Wagner/Banchero/Carter trio. Let’s go with Thompson, who compares favorably to a young Andre Iguodala.
7. Indiana Pacers: Taylor Hendricks, F, UCF
It’s difficult to peg the Pacers, with the trade rumors swirling around Myles Turner. Would they trade for DeAndre Ayton? Then Hendricks becomes a stretch big, which might be a perfect fit. Rumor mill says Hendricks won’t fall out of the top 10.
8. Washington Wizards: Anthony Black, G, Arkansas
This is the worst roster in the league, and the recent young draft picks — Corey Kispert, Johnny Davis, Deni Avdjia — haven’t shown much. Black is only 18, and looks like a big combo guard who can guard multiple positions. If someone thinks he can become a good shooter quickly, he could go as high as fourth.
9. Utah Jazz: Ausar Thompson, G/F, Overtime Elite
Otherwise known as “The Thompson twin that’s a shooter,” the Jazz are a wildcard because it’s unclear what their plans are for Collin Sexton, and his potential replacement could be UK’s Cason Wallace.
10. Dallas Mavericks: Gradey Dick, Wing, Kansas
The Mavericks desperately need a 3-and-D wing to fall to them, and while Dick isn’t ready to be a factor defensively, he’ll be an instant factor as a shooter alongside Luka. The other option could be Duke’s Dereck Lively, if they want to move on from Christian Wood.
Skip says Victor Wembanyama will make the Spurs contenders again
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago): Jordan Hawkins, SG, UConn
Had the Magic taking the best shooting guard in the draft sixth in the last mock, but there isn’t a clear path for him in the 7-10 range, so let’s slide him down to 11. Could also slide out of the lottery, and he’d be a great fit in Golden State.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Kobe Bufkin, G/F, Michigan
The Thunder have so much young talent, it’s hard to envision anyone they draft getting playing time. Do you bet on Bufkin, an 18-year-old who has flashed some major talent? If Jarace Walker is still on the board, he’ll get a long look here.
13. Toronto Raptors: Jalen Hood-Schifino, G, Indiana
Intriguing big point guard prospect was invisible against Kent State in the NCAA Tournament, but was aggressive against Miami and its NBA-caliber backcourt (19 points). The Raptors might be the team with the biggest roster movement this summer. Very tough to project where they go here.
14. New Orleans Pelicans: Jarace Walker, F, Houston
Given the Zion Williamson trade buzz, you have to wonder what the Pelicans are looking at doing here. Walker’s 7-2 wingspan is alluring, as he could be a small-ball center … if they move on from Zion.
15. Atlanta Hawks: Cason Wallace, G, Kentucky
The list of UK guards who have vastly outperformed their draft pick is lengthy. Tyrese Maxey, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, and of course superstars like De’Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray and Devin Booker. Drafting a PG here would signal that Trae Young may not be long for Atlanta.
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota): Keyonte George, SG, Baylor
George is a tantalizing prospect, because he’s a scoring machine, with the potential to get buckets early as a rookie. The Jazz have talked about moving Jordan Clarkson, and George would battle Ochai Agbaji for minutes instantly.
Is Victor Wembanyama a better NBA prospect than LeBron James?
17. Los Angeles Lakers: Dereck Lively, C, Duke
It doesn’t seem like Lively could possibly fall this far, but 14-17 aren’t currently in the market for a big. Would OKC consider him to play center alongside Chet Holmgren?
18. Miami Heat: Jett Howard, Wing, Michigan
The son of former Heat player/coach Juwan Howard makes a lot of sense here. Howard learning from Jimmy Butler would be a great entrance to the league.
19. Golden State Warriors: Rayan Rupert, F, New Zealand Breakers
Rupert is a long, athletic, defensive-minded wing with a 7-2 wingspan. Rupert can toggle between the 3-4-5, and he won’t find a better mentor than Draymond Green.
20. Houston Rockets (via LA Clippers): James Nnaji, C, FC Barcelona
Nnaji hasn’t been able to work out for teams due to his Barcelona team still competing in the postseason, but the 7-footer with a 7-7 wingspan is an ideal candidate to get drafted and stashed for a year or two before he turns 21.
21. Brooklyn Nets (via Phoenix): Nick Smith Jr., G, Arkansas
Upside guy who is undervalued after playing just seven games after knee problems following last summer’s surgery. Medicals will determine if he falls out of the first, or possibly goes fringe lottery as teams like his size (6-5).
22. Brooklyn Nets: Brice Sensabaugh, SF, Ohio State
A scoring machine in the TJ Warren mold of putting up points on bad teams in defeat. Can he become a winning player, distributing and defending?
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via NY): Ben Sheppard, SF, Belmont
With a glut of young, talented guards, the Blazers will continue to take swings at small forwards, and Sheppard is a lengthy wing who can shoot and create. And, he turns 22 soon, making him appealing to a team that wants to win now, the way Austin Reaves has helped the Lakers.
Expectations for Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio?
24. Sacramento Kings: Kris Murray, SF, Iowa
Throughout the process, I’ve had the Kings taking the twin brother of Sacramento’s Keegan Murray. Nothing has changed.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Olivier-Maxence Prosper, F, Marquette
With Dillon Brooks done in Memphis, the Grizzlies will be looking to add a wing who can contribute immediately off the bench.
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland): : Dariq Whitehead, Wing, Duke
I had him going to Atlanta, where the Hawks have drafted Blue Devils in the first round the last two years, but if his twice-injured foot doesn’t clear medicals, he could fall out of the first round entirely. With three first-round picks, this is a great buy-low grab for the Pacers.
27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver): Jaime Jaquez Jr., F, UCLA
Would love for him to land with a playoff team, so we can watch him contribute, because he will. The Hornets have been a mess for decades, with their last playoff series win coming in 2002. In that time, they have one season with 45-plus wins. They need grown-ups, and Jaquez qualifies.
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia): Brandin Podziemski, G, Santa Clara
When you shoot 44% on 3s, you’re probably ready to contribute on a playoff team. Podziemski’s market starts around 19 with the Warriors, along with the Grizzlies and Bucks.
29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston): Maxwell Lewis, SF, Pepperdine
Length and shooters, that’s what the Pacers need, especially if they trade for DeAndre Ayton. Unless of course the Pacers trade all three picks and move up to take a big swing.
30. Milwaukee (via LA Clippers): Trayce Jackson-Davis, F/C, Indiana
Let’s see what happens with Brook Lopez, because ultimately, they’re going to need rim protection around Giannis.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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