Will Brent Venables get Oklahoma back on track in 2023?

The 2022 college football season was one to forget for the Oklahoma Sooners.

Brent Venables’ first season in Norman concluded with a loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It-Bowl as the Sooners finished the campaign with a 6-7 record, marking the program’s first losing season in 24 years.

The belief is that Venables will be able to turn things around in Year 2 as the Sooners return QB Dillon Gabriel, who was named the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year, and welcome a talented recruiting class, as well as a solid group of transfers.

Of course, the underlying theme of this upcoming season will be Oklahoma’s final year in the Big 12 ahead of the school’s impending move to the SEC in 2024.

What should fans expect to see from the Sooners in 2023? FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young, Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer are here to weigh in on all of it.

One of the chief orders of business for Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is to find ways to improve a unit that ranked 122nd in total defense (461 yards per game) and 99th in scoring defense (30 points per game) last season. Venables, who served as Clemson‘s defensive coordinator from 2012-21, will expect much more from himself and defensive coordinator Ted Roof in 2023. The question is, can they deliver?

RJ Young: If he doesn’t, it won’t be because Roof and OU were shy about heading into the portal to get players. In Dasan McCullough, Rondell Bothroyd and Jacob Lacey, he has three new pieces set to join preseason All-Big 12 defensive end Ethan Downs and linebacking stalwart Danny Stutsman. There’s reason to be optimistic about the defense being better because: A. It can’t get much worse than giving up 30 points per game and B. The notion that Venables needed a year to figure out what he needed to fix isn’t far-fetched. After all, he got to Clemson and helped turn that program into a national title winner in a short time — after he had already done so at OU in his first go round.

Bryan Fischer: Can they? Certainly. Venables’ track record over the years dating back to his first stint in Norman has been impressive and he’s not one who has forgotten how to coach. The same for Roof, who has been around some incredible defensive minds over the years and has had some notable successes in short bursts as a coordinator.

Still, I can’t help but wonder if they can deliver the kind of defensive improvements the Sooners need to get back to their accustomed perch atop the Big 12 – the place that the fan base is expecting to be no matter if it’s Year 2 or Year 22. The product on the field last year was devoid of the kind of coaching you would expect from this staff. I get that they hit the transfer portal hard and should be better with the likes of Dasan McCullough and Rondell Bothroyd, but count me as being skeptical that the secondary is going to come along enough to match the progress the front seven should make in 2023 and really be able to elevate the defense into being something better than passable.

I echo RJ that there is indeed nowhere to go but up after the numbers they put up last year, but delivering a defense that OU can rely on to help win those close games – especially in such a tough Big 12 — is another matter entirely.

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Michael Cohen: Even though Venables is the primary architect of Oklahoma’s system after an incredible run as Clemson’s defensive coordinator, it’s impossible for a head coach to be that entrenched on one side of the ball without neglecting some of the managerial tasks associated with the big chair. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has learned that same lesson in Columbus, and that’s why he’s toying with the idea of ceding play-calling duties to newly promoted offensive coordinator Brian Hartline.

As Venables broadens his purview, there’s an incredible amount of pressure on Roof to improve the defense entering the 2023 season. The 59-year-old Roof has five years of head-coaching experience at Duke from 2003-07 (6-45 overall record), while also serving as defensive coordinator for Minnesota, Auburn, Central Florida, Penn State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Vanderbilt, among others, before accepting a job as one of Venables’ assistants at Clemson in 2021. He followed Venables to Oklahoma ahead of the 2022 campaign.

But Roof’s most recent results across his last few defensive coordinator positions at Power 5 programs typically landed in the middle of the pack. In 2020, during his lone season in charge of Vanderbilt’s defense, the Commodores finished 121st in total defense. From 2013-17, when he worked at Georgia Tech, Roof’s defenses finished 28th, 81st, 42nd, 59th and 33rd in his final season. In 2012, during his only year at Penn State, the Nittany Lions ranked 29th overall, but fourth in the Big Ten. It’s a track record that suggests Oklahoma’s defense can improve in 2023, but that Roof is unlikely to transform the Sooners into an elite unit.

Based on what he accomplished last season, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of the best returning signal-callers in the Big 12 — at least when he played in Norman. At home, Gabriel averaged 297 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game with a 64.6% completion rate. On the road, Gabriel averaged 228.6 yards and 1.8 TDs at a 60.6% completion rate. Is this a legitimate cause for concern with trips to Texas, Oklahoma State and BYU on the schedule in 2023?

Bryan: As eye-popping as those home/road splits are, I think there is some context needed in that he just didn’t seem like quite the same quarterback after leaving the TCU game with a concussion following a brutal hit. This was especially true on the road, where he was less effective in using his legs and the offensive line did him no favors down the stretch for some of those games either. It kind of felt like things snowballed a bit in terms of confidence, and when that happens in all the close games the Sooners played in the second half of the year, that was enough of a margin to end up on the losing end with a QB who wasn’t as effective.

That said, I’m not as concerned about going on the road in 2023. Gabriel has played a ton of football, ranking third among all active FBS players in total offensive yardage, and second in passing yards and touchdowns. He knows how to throw it around in this offense, and he’s certainly comfortable enough in hostile environments. That game in Provo, Utah could be a little tricky given where it falls on the calendar and the added complication of playing in that altitude, but it sure seems like last year’s numbers were not a trend that is causing OU to fret going into this season.

Michael: Gabriel’s splits are certainly interesting and worth monitoring as the Sooners navigate a trio of difficult road games in this year’s expanded Big 12, but the overall level of concern shouldn’t be that high.

While it would be ideal for a player with nearly 40 career appearances between his time at Central Florida (2019-21) and Oklahoma to be unbothered by road environments, the drop-offs Gabriel experienced last season typically didn’t hurt the Sooners in the long run. Gabriel was brilliant in his team’s 51-48 overtime loss to Texas Tech last November when he completed 28 of 40 passes for 449 yards, six touchdowns and only one interception. And while his statistics were significantly less impressive in Oklahoma’s other road losses — he threw for 190 yards and zero touchdowns in a loss at West Virginia; he threw for 126 yards and zero touchdowns in a loss at TCU — neither of those performances included an interception.

In fact, the most encouraging part of Gabriel’s career splits from both schools is the minimal uptick in interceptions from home games to road games. In home games, Gabriel has thrown 49 touchdowns with just nine interceptions on 604 passing attempts at both UCF and Oklahoma. In road games, he’s thrown 41 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions on 583 attempts at both schools. That ability to protect the football, regardless of venue, is why Sooners’ fans shouldn’t spend much time worrying about their quarterback during a difficult 2023 road slate.

RJ: It ain’t cause for praise, I can assure you that. But Gabriel didn’t get much help with an offense that went three-and-out in a short amount of time because offensive coordinator Jeff Lenny’s scheme is predicated on being one of the fastest to snap the ball in the sport. Away games, where the crowd is a factor, certainly contribute to shorter possessions by the offense.

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Venables and his staff made a splash by signing the No. 4 overall recruiting class in the country in 2023, which was Oklahoma’s highest mark since finishing third in 2005. Aside from five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold, who is unlikely to play a large role unless Gabriel gets injured, which of the incoming freshmen can contribute right away?

Michael: Before focusing specifically on incoming freshmen, it’s worth noting a transfer who could play a significant role this season. One player to watch is former Michigan wide receiver Andrel Anthony, a 6-foot-2 speedster best known for his breakout performance against Michigan State in 2021. Anthony caught six passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow loss to the Spartans that quickly transformed him into a fan favorite. But Anthony hardly saw the field in 2023 as he struggled to embrace some of the blocking responsibilities in Michigan’s run-heavy offense. He finished the season with just seven catches for 80 yards and one touchdown. There’s a chance Anthony slides directly into a starting role with the Sooners.

As for the freshmen, five-star safety Peyton Bowen seems like a player the coaching staff will have a difficult time keeping off the field. The Sooners finished tied for 109th in passing defense last season at 261.8 yards per game and were tied for 92nd with six passes of 50-plus yards allowed. Introducing an elite prospect like Bowen, who was the nation’s No. 2 overall safety in the 247Sports Composite rankings, might be a great way to kickstart what Venables & Co. hope is a speedy turnaround. Bowen finished his career at powerhouse Guyer High School in Denton, Texas, with more than 200 tackles and 12 interceptions across three seasons of varsity football. Still, his recruitment was anything but straightforward, and part of the reason for getting him on the field early might be to placate Bowen and deter him from entering the transfer portal. Bowen spent time committed to both Notre Dame and Oregon before ultimately flipping to the Sooners last December.

RJ: I’m with Michael on this one regarding Andrel Anthony. If he can take the top off the defense, allowing receivers Drake Stoops, Gavin Freeman and Jalil Farooq to be factors in the quick-game, then I think we’ll see a season similar to the one Marvin Mims enjoyed in 2021 — another sign that they need the Michigan transfer to produce.

Bryan: I’m going to disagree slightly on Arnold as Gabriel’s injury history is enough to make me think that the young five-star could come in and play some snaps as a replacement late in a game for a key moment or get handed the keys to the car fully for a game or two as the program takes a look to the future if the team starts to fall behind in the Big 12 pecking order before November rolls around.

I agree with Michael on Peyton Bowen, who almost has to see the field from a need standpoint, but also because his, well, unique path to signing with Oklahoma will bring plenty of increased attention to every snap he takes. That five-star label is nothing to overlook either, as he is somebody who looks the part and has played at a high a level coming out of high school. He figures to find a little more playing time in nickel and dime until he can fully fill out his frame, but the pathway to being a starter is there for the taking.

Offensively, I wouldn’t sleep on Daylan Smothers being able to contribute this year too. It might take a few games for him to get into the flow after not seeing the field for so long, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Jeff Lebby can dial up a few big plays that spring him for some big gains and muscle out Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk for some carries.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.