10 things we’re looking forward to in MLB’s second half, including runs at history

The wait is over. We’re turning our attention to the second half of the year, facing a season that should offer plenty of twists, turns, upsets and excitement to fill our competitive baseball appetite.

No more eye-roll-inducing statements like, “it’s still early” or, “let’s see how things shake out,” from players and front-office members alike. The pressure is on, the heat is being turned up. This is when things get real.

With that being said, there are several storylines we’re looking forward to in the second half of the season. They range from Shohei Ohtani’s future to Aaron Judge’s questionable return to which teams will be buyers and sellers, with no shortage of drama and interest in between. Let’s dive in.

1. Will Shohei Ohtani complete the greatest season of all time?

Ohtani’s 32 home runs in 91 games indicate the two-way phenom is on track to finish with around 60 homers on the season. He’s expected to challenge Judge’s 62 home runs and command a free agency process like no other. It is of course in Ohtani’s best interests to stay on the field and perform at his peak in his walk year while the Angels try to convince him to stay in Anaheim and play for a contending team. While the Angels hang around in the wild-card race (more on that situation later), Ohtani’s once-in-a-lifetime ability to draw attention and excitement should only aid his on-field antics.

Keep an eye on Ohtani particularly at the outset of the second half of the season while the designated hitter holds the most home runs, highest OPS (1.050) and highest slugging percentage (.663) in MLB. He needs to improve his home run pace (currently around one homer every three games) to reach the 60-home run mark. As for pitching, it will be interesting to see if Ohtani can continue to lower his 3.32 ERA into the sub-3.00s and whether he can even get close to his 2.33 ERA and 1.012 WHIP from last year.

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2. Will Aaron Judge return from injury this season?

It’s simply disastrous for the sport when a dynamic baseball giant like Judge goes down and misses extended time due to injury. The same goes for electric players like Edwin Diaz, who is not close to closing games again for the Mets. But Judge’s injury situation is different from Diaz’s in that the Yankees are advertising there’s still a chance the slugger returns, at least to the plate, this year. When exactly that could happen is anyone’s guess. We might have better odds playing the lottery.

3. Can Luis Arráez end the year batting .400?

Already, Arráez has accomplished a feat no other player has since the 2000 season by finishing the first half batting over .380. Now, sitting at .383 for the Miami Marlins, the Venezuelan is set to begin the second half within sight of the .400 barrier. No player has hit .400 over a full season since Ted Williams in 1941. Let that sink in: Arráez is looking to become the first player in 82 years to hit his way to .400. That challenge is not only difficult on its own, but when we factor in the triple-digit heaters and exhaustive breakdowns opposing teams have on Arráez, that .400 undertaking becomes that much more of a daunting grind.

History says Arraez may fall short of .400, but it’s not as if we’re talking about a player enjoying a lucky season, or one who may come back down to earth. Arráez is the reigning American League batting champion, hitting .316 with a .795 OPS to earn him that honor for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. After switching leagues and swapping teams, Arráez hasn’t slowed down and has given us little reason to believe that will happen. Will pressure be a privilege or a hindrance for Arráez?

4. Will the Mets and Padres finish as the worst teams money could buy?

The Mets and Padres represent two of the three richest payrolls this year, coming in at No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. And yet, both clubs are major disappointments, and possibly even sellers, as they enter the second half. Nobody saw it coming, with combined star-studded rosters that feature the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and Fernando Tatís Jr., Juan Soto, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Those are just the headliners.

The 2023 season, for both teams, appears to be circling the drain just a few weeks out from the trade deadline. At the same time, the star power on each roster indicates the Mets and Padres could turn it around soon by going on the run we all expected them to when the season started. Still, the dramatic downfalls for each club are startling.

Per FanGraphs, when the season began, the Mets had a 77% chance of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning it all. The Padres were locked in at an 85% chance of making the playoffs and 11% chance at a World Series title. Post All-Star break, FanGraphs gives the Mets a 14% chance of making the playoffs and 1% chance of winning the World Series. For the Padres, it’s now a 32% chance of making the playoffs and 3.5% chance of winning a championship. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

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5. Which arms will the Dodgers add?

Los Angeles owns the eighth-worst bullpen in baseball, and even that statistic fails to aptly characterize just how leaky and overworked those relief arms actually are. The Dodgers’ entire Opening Day starting pitching staff has seen some amount of time on the injured list, leading to a 4.55 rotation ERA, good for 19th in MLB. The inconsistency from Dodgers’ arms has been surprising, to say the least. And yet, despite those flaws, the Dodgers are still among the favorites to win the World Series, behind only the Atlanta Braves.

So they need to improve before the trade deadline to keep their postseason push alive. It’s hard to imagine this current version of the Dodgers being a true threat in October, despite their projected odds to win the World Series remaining at 12.7%. At the same time … the Dodgers are also heavily linked to Ohtani and will undoubtedly be in the mix to land the Japanese star in free agency this winter. So do they go big, give away top prospects, and make a huge splash to fill their pitching holes, or just wait for Ohtani? It doesn’t have to be one or the other, so it will be interesting to see which path Los Angeles takes in the coming weeks.

6. Which bats will the Yankees add?

Just like the Dodgers are in need of arms, it’s not a matter of if but when the Yankees will strengthen their offense with a big (preferably left-handed) bat or two. Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field is a left-handed-hitter’s dream and New York’s roster needs more pull-happy players not named Anthony Rizzo, Billy McKinney, Willie Calhoun or Jake Bauers. If the Padres continue to free-fall in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, it would be silly if San Diego didn’t make at least one star left-handed hitter available.

“I do believe that the San Diego Padres could get hot and really make some waves in the National League West,” Derek Jeter said Tuesday on FOX Sports. “But if they don’t … I wouldn’t mind seeing the Yankees go out and get Juan Soto. You don’t know how long Judge is going to be out. They need some offense. I think it makes sense.”

From the Captain’s mouth to the Yankees’ ears.

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7. Will the Angels stay in contention?

Arte Moreno’s Angels have been noteworthy from the moment he decided to sell, and then un-sell, the team, to the moment his brass put together a squad that actually — finally — could still be contenders come October. Moreno bought the Angels for $183.5 million in 2003, one year after the first and only World Series title in franchise history. For the majority of the 2023 season, the Angels looked like they could finally contend. Alas, injuries have started to trickle in.

Ohtani (finger blister), Mike Trout (fractured hamate bone) and Anthony Rendon (shin contusion) are all hurt. That’s on top of an Angels offense already missing infielders Zach Neto, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela, as well as catchers Logan O’Hoppe and Max Stassi. Despite all those bumps and bruises, the Angels enter the second half five games out of the wild-card race with just a few teams to leapfrog.

If the Angels can somehow scratch and claw their way into the playoffs, they will also have a stronger argument to convince Ohtani to stay in Anaheim come the offseason. Ohtani wants to play for a winning team yesterday, and the Angels could become that contender he wants while possibly offering the comfort he’s already received. Keeping Ohtani in an Angels uniform remains a long shot, but winning would help their case.

8. Will the Cardinals be sellers?

It’s hard to answer that question in any other way than “Duh,” as St. Louis slumps into the second half 11.5 games behind the first-place Reds and 11 games back in the wild card race. At this point, the Cardinals would need collapses from several teams just to get into the conversation and that’s a bleak place to be.

Rather, the stars they could sell off to contending teams could provide hope. No, we’re not talking about the Nolan Arenados and Paul Goldschmidts of the world — unless St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak wants a full reset, that is. Otherwise, the Cardinals have intriguing walk-year candidates they could trade to remain in contention in 2024, including pitchers Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks. Shortstop Paul DeJong and rehabbing outfielder Tyler O’Neill could also be made available.

9. Can Ronald Acuña Jr. go 40/70?

Acuña is so clearly running away with the National League MVP that we won’t bother to even list that as a “race.” But we are looking forward to when — not if — Acuña can not only become the first 30/50 player since Barry Bonds did it in 1990, but also seeing if he can push the limit and go 40/70.

For Acuña, who’s sitting at 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases to open the second half, reaching 30/50 is borderline inevitable. It’s pretty amazing to believe that mark could be achieved already, at the halfway point of the season, when only two players in history have ever done it (Bonds and Eric Davis in 1987). Coincidentally, both Bonds and Davis posted their respective 30/50 marks in their age-25 seasons, and Acuña is currently in his age-25 season. But, more than that, it’s becoming possible Acuña could even be the first to reach 40 homers and 70 stolen bases.

At this rate, Acuña is projected to finish the year with 38 home runs and 74 stolen bases. It’s easier to believe he can keep up, or even improve, his home run rate in the hotter months of July and August. But it’s harder to believe he will keep up his stolen base rate, if only because the contending Braves need Acuña to stay healthy in October, and swiping bags (under an injury threat, a la Ozzie Albies last year) in unimportant September games could hinder Atlanta’s playoff efforts. If the Braves let Acuña fly, we might just see history.

10. Who wins the home run/Cy Young races?

The field appears wide open for both of these races as we come out of the All-Star break and enter the second half of the season. The home run race certainly offers some intriguing names, including Ohtani leading all of MLB with 32 dingers. Behind him in the AL: Luis Robert (26), Adolis Garcia (23) and Rafael Devers (20). The NL home run race appears like it will be more of a battle, with Matt Olson leading the pack with 29 homers, and Mookie Betts and Alonso right behind him with 26 each.

As for the Cy Young, it remains eyebrow-raising that Gerrit Cole has yet to lock down the honor even once across his 11-year big-league career. He came close, leading the AL with a 2.50 ERA in 2019 only to fall to his then-Astros teammate in Verlander, who owned the best WHIP in baseball and led MLB in wins. Cole has finished top five in Cy Young nominations five times in the past eight seasons. Sporting a 2.85 ERA and 123 strikeouts to enter the second half, Cole is still in the mix to earn his first Cy Young honor, but he needs to be better to finally win it. Houston’s Framber Valdez is another front-runner in the AL, while a handful of starters — including Zac Gallen, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Spencer Strider are trying for this year’s Cy Young award in the NL.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets for three-and-a-half seasons as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. She never misses a Rafael Nadal match, no matter what country or time zone he’s playing in. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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