2023 Women’s World Cup odds: Germany upset shocks bettors, sportsbooks

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It’s been a week of shakeups on the Women’s World Cup odds board, starting with Team USA’s not-so-scintillating performance Tuesday to wrap up Group E play. While the U.S. managed to advance to the Knockout Stage, it is no longer the favorite to win the tournament, sitting behind England as the co-second choice with Spain.

Then Brazil, runner-up in the 2007 Women’s World Cup and a 1999 semifinalist, failed to advance. And a bigger shoe dropped Thursday, with Germany – a two-time World Cup champion – also failing to get out of the Group Stage.

“It’s shocking to see so many teams in the top 10 of the world rankings struggling this badly,” BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said.

Magee, WynnBet’s Dominick DeBonis and TwinSpires Sportsbook’s Zachary Lucas break down the breakdowns that reshaped odds to win the Women’s World Cup.

Biggest Shock

Germany, winner of back-to-back World Cups in 2003 and 2007, started the 2023 tourney like a house on fire. The German side throttled Morocco 6-0 for 3 points in the Group H standings.

But things started going awry for Germany in its second match against Colombia. Germany was a healthy -390 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Colombia a hefty +925 underdog and Draw +500.

Germany lost outright, 2-1. That made Thursday’s match against South Korea extremely important. A win guaranteed advancing, while a draw would require a Morocco loss or draw against Colombia. This time, Germany was an even larger favorite, in the -540 range. South Korea was a major underdog at +1350, while Draw was +600.

However, South Korea scored the match’s first goal six minutes in and played Germany to a stunning 1-1 tie, while Morocco beat Colombia 1-0. So Germany is out of the tournament.

“Germany bowing out in the Group Stage is by far the biggest shock of the tournament so far,” DeBonis said. “Out of all the favorites, Germany seemed to be the most primed to win the tournament coming in, in terms of health and motivation.”

When Women’s World Cup championship odds were first posted months ago, Germany was the +650 fourth choice among the 32 teams. Even after the stunning loss to Colombia, the German side was still +800 and still the fourth choice.

But Colombia finished atop Group H with 6 points, winning a tiebreaker with Morocco based on goal differential. Morocco’s second-place group finish stole the Knockout Stage spot everyone assumed would go to Germany.

“Germany ends up losing their spot to Morocco, whom they absolutely thrashed just a week ago,” DeBonis said, alluding to that 6-0 Germany rout to open the tournament. “It’s another reminder of how cruel the game can be.”

At BetMGM, the reshaped Women’s World Cup championship odds have the following as the top five:

England +300
USA +400
Spain +400
France +650
Japan +800

Free Money – Or Not

To reiterate, Germany was a strong favorite to beat South Korea on Thursday. Even at that -540 price – which means one would have to bet $54 to win $10 for a $64 total payout – action was heavy on Germany.

“We had a few five-figure wagers on Germany moneyline,” Lucas said of wagering at TwinSpires. “They thought it was free money.”

Apparently not, at least in this Women’s World Cup odds market. Draw bettors – and in this instance, Draw could practically be classified as an upset – got the best of the bookmakers, but not many customers were on Draw as the final outcome.

“It was a great result for us,” Lucas said.

Historical Setback

For the first time in Women’s World Cup history – nine tournaments, dating to 1991 –Germany failed to reach the Knockout Stage. That’s not what WynnBet was rooting for.

“On the outright [championship] front, Germany was the biggest winner for us among the favorites, so to lose Germany this early wasn’t great,” DeBonis said. “We did well to Colombia winning Group H, which is a small consolation.”

A Germany championship would’ve been a win for BetMGM, as well. Team USA is the largest championship liability – by a mile – at most U.S.-based sportsbooks, BetMGM included. And like Germany and Brazil before them, the Americans don’t look particularly strong heading into the Round of 16.

“This is a fairly wild tournament. A couple of big favorites have either stumbled out of the gates or are out of the race altogether,” Magee said.

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Historical Advance

Surprisingly, Morocco isn’t one of those teams out of the race. Before the Group Stage began, Morocco was +50000 (500/1) to win the World Cup, near the bottom of the 32-team field. Among the 16 teams remaining, Morocco is tied with South Africa as the longest shot at +20000 (200/1).

But the Moroccan side is still alive, at least, rebounding from that 6-0 wipeout against Germany to beat South Korea and Colombia. Playing in its first World Cup, Morocco is the first Arab or North African team to earn a spot in the tournament and, thereby, the first to reach the Knockout Stage.

“It’s a major choke by Germany,” Lucas said. “But Morocco is a great story.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.