What exactly would a Dak Prescott candidacy for NFL MVP look like?
I can feel the question sparking a social-media meltdown already, but I’ll press on. After all, it’s mid-June and this is the time for idle speculation. The topic is in the news cycle already, as NFL.com’s Adam Schein listed Prescott as a top dark-horse candidate to win this year’s award. FanDuel pegs him at +1600, essentially 16:1 odds.
Prescott has the benefit of being the starting quarterback for the one team guaranteed to be in the headlines regardless of its record. But, as evidenced by the past 30 years, that’s not enough on its own. Emmitt Smith is the only Cowboy to win the AP’s NFL MVP, all the way back in 1993 when the team’s ’90s dynasty was at its peak.
What would it take for Dak to buck that trend? Honestly, not all that much more than we’ve already seen from him.
For starters, though, he’ll need to be healthy. Prescott ran through his first four years in the league without an absence, but he’s missed 17 games over the past three seasons — roughly 34% of his possible games. Most of that is due to his devastating leg injury in 2020, but he missed a game with a calf strain in 2021 and another five after fracturing his thumb in 2022.
Since the league expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only two players have missed more than two games the year they won NFL MVP: Joe Montana in 1989 and John Elway in 1987. During this current 10-year run of quarterbacks winning MVP, dating back to Peyton Manning in 2013, no winner has missed more than one game. A healthier season will be paramount for Prescott — not just for his own stats, but for the Cowboys’ overall chances in their conference.
Speaking of which, winning goes a long way in determining the MVP race. Eight of the past 10 NFL MVPs quarterbacked his team to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and nine of them finished with at least 12 wins.
In recent memory, the only quarterback to take home an MVP without at least 12 wins is Matt Ryan in 2016. Not to take any credit away from Ryan’s phenomenal season, but it’s worth remembering that his victory coincided with Tom Brady serving a four-game suspension for the eventual AFC No. 1 seed Patriots, while — coincidentally — Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott each received MVP votes for that year’s 13-3 Cowboys team.
Prescott has a solid record of 61-36 as a starter, and the Cowboys have finished 12-5 in consecutive seasons. Even so, Dallas hasn’t finished better than the No. 3 seed since his rookie year, and last season the Cowboys were a wild-card team after losing the NFC East to MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. There’s a certain threshold of team success required, and it starts at about 12 wins and a division title — though preferably more.
Can the Cowboys win a Super Bowl with Dak Prescott?
Now for the truly next-level analysis: The Cowboys aren’t going to bump their win total if Prescott doesn’t raise his individual level of play.
The whole reason Prescott is even a hotly debated topic is because of his struggles in 2022. Despite missing five weeks with the thumb injury, he led the NFL with 15 interceptions to just 23 touchdowns. His postseason was a microcosm of his up-and-down year, as he threw two costly picks against San Francisco just six days after completing 76% of his passes and scoring five touchdowns against Tampa Bay.
The simple truth of the matter, though, is that Prescott is no stranger to gaudy stat lines. In two of his previous three seasons prior to 2022, he eclipsed 4,440 passing yards. He combined for 67 touchdowns in the 2019 and 2021 seasons, and he was on pace to throw 29 when he broke his leg in Week 5 of 2020.
More importantly to this conversation, he managed to do that without the turnovers. Prescott’s career interception rate sits at just 2.0 even after his pick-happy 2022, as he managed to throw an interception on less than 2% of his attempts in each of the previous four years.
The precedent says that’s important. In addition to putting up video game numbers, NFL MVPs avoid errors. Only one of the past 10 MVPs has turned the ball over more than 15 times on the season, and that was Peyton Manning, who threw a league-record 55 touchdowns when he won in 2013. Similarly, Patrick Mahomes threw 12 interceptions en route to the award last season, but he coupled that with 45 touchdowns — nearly a 4:1 ratio. Prescott’s options are to significantly boost his touchdown production or significantly cut back on the turnovers.
Both options feel possible. Again, Prescott has put up plenty of strong numbers. His 37 passing touchdowns in 2021 set a franchise record, and he came just one yard short of tying the team’s single-season yardage record in 2019, with a total of 4,902. In both of those seasons, he managed to pile up stats with fewer turnovers — 30 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 2019, and 37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 2021. That will matter, as every MVP since 2013 has managed a minimum of 4,200 total yards and 32 touchdowns on the season.
Expect Dak Prescott to improve with Mike McCarthy calling plays?
He’ll have a bit more help this time around. On average, the Dallas receiver corps managed 5.4 yards of separation last season, which was 22nd in the league. To rectify the issue, the Cowboys traded for Brandin Cooks to add to the duo of CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. They also retained Tony Pollard, who was Prescott’s best big-play option, using the franchise tag on the running back. It’s also fair to add that a defense that has produced 95 sacks and 90 takeaways the last two seasons should be a quarterback’s best asset toward getting the ball back and winning games.
The formula feels straightforward — albeit difficult. Prescott need only lead the Cowboys to another great record, their highest playoff seeding in a decade and do so while averaging 250-plus yards per game and a 3:1 touchdown-to-turnover ratio or better. Piece of cake.
But, as can be said for the Cowboys’ entire organization, this feels like a rare window. Tom Brady is retired, and Aaron Rodgers is off to the other side of the Super Bowl bracket. The NFC likely won’t look this winnable for longer than a year or two, with only Philadelphia and San Francisco standing out as true contenders.
There is a path here for Prescott to pull something like this off, and it would go a long way toward helping the Cowboys accomplish the team goals that have eluded them for so long. Who’s to say if it’ll actually happen, but the setup might not ever be this good again.
David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.
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