MLB Power Rankings: Which division races are most exciting?

Who had the Reds, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Rays leading their respective divisions near the halfway point?

A bevy of upstart clubs have shaken up the standings, leading to what should be some exhilarating division battles after the break. But which races will be the most exciting to follow?

(Scroll down for the weekly Power Rankings.)

1. NL West

This division was billed as a showdown between the Dodgers — NL West winners in nine of the past 10 seasons — and the Padres. San Diego carried the momentum of its National League Division Series win into the offseason, spending to a level that vaulted the small-market club to the third-highest payroll in the sport.

Yet, as of today, the top two teams in the NL West are neither of those franchises.

There were reasons to believe the Diamondbacks could make a jump, given the presence of Corbin Carroll among other young talents, but few could’ve predicted the degree to which they’d ascend after winning 74 games last year. Arizona currently leads the division, 2.5 games ahead of a San Francisco team that has won 12 of its past 14 contests with the help of its own standout rookies, Patrick Bailey and Luis Matos. What the Giants lack in superstars they’ve made up for with a plethora of above-average contributors.

It’s setting up for a captivating second half, with the D-backs, Giants and Dodgers all within three games of one another. Despite the obvious talent assembled, the Padres are running out of time to get into the mix the way they envisioned, currently 9.5 games back as they attempt to challenge for their first division crown since 2006. This division is completely up for grabs.

2. NL Central

What a time in Cincinnati. A year after posting 62 wins, a bevy of blossoming young contributors have the Reds stunningly atop the division. Elly De La Cruz has provided an electrifying jolt — they were 27-33 before his arrival; 14-4 since — and looks every bit the kind of franchise-altering talent he was propped up to be.

Reds’ Elly De La Cruz leads Ben Verlander’s Team of the Week

Teamed with fellow rookie standouts Matt McLain (.325 AVG), Spencer Steer (11 home runs) and Andrew Abbott (1.14 ERA), young stalwarts Alexis Díaz (21-for-21 in save chances), Hunter Greene (100 strikeouts in 73.1 innings) and returning veteran Joey Votto, who has three homers in his first six games back from injury, the Reds are the best story in baseball right now. The question is whether they have the pitching to keep this up.

Beyond them, the Brewers, Cubs and — yes — the Cardinals all also still have a better than 10% chance to win the division, according to FanGraphs. The Brewers are on the Reds’ tails, just a half-game back, while the Cubs are the only team in the division with a positive run differential (+32) and are coming on strong with wins in 11 of their past 14 games. This race could go down to the wire, and the pressure will be on considering the unlikelihood of the runner-up making the playoffs.

3. AL West

Who saw this offensive explosion coming in Texas? The Rangers completely overhauled their rotation this winter, but it has been their offense carrying them to the best record in the AL West. They’ve scored more runs than any other team in baseball, they’re converting at a mystifying rate when they get chances (.312/.369/.517 with runners in scoring position), they’re posting the best run differential in the sport (+152) and their pitching staff has the sixth-best ERA in baseball (3.75) despite losing Jacob deGrom for the year two months ago.

Can the offense sustain this level of production? Even if it doesn’t, a 5.5-game lead over the Astros is a healthy cushion. The Rangers are now the odds-on favorites in the AL West, though the talent in Houston, Anaheim and Seattle — despite the Mariners‘ disappointing first half — will require Texas to maintain its level of play to claim its first division title since 2016.

Corey Seager talks Year 2 in Texas with Ken Rosenthal

4. AL East

The Rays are finally starting to show some cracks, though their grasp on the division remains tight. Even with Tampa dropping seven of its past 13 games and splitting series with the last-place Athletics and Royals, FanGraphs currently gives the Rays an 82.3% chance to win the AL East. It’s a testament to their extraordinary start to the year, which has built them a 4.5-game advantage on the second-place Orioles (and a 9.5-game lead on the third-place Yankees).

The Rays boast a plus-150 run differential — more than 130 runs better than any other AL East team — but the rest of the division isn’t about to drop off. Nearing the halfway mark, the worst AL East team (Red Sox: 40-39) has the same record as the best AL Central club (Twins). There are simply too many talented clubs in the East to think one of them won’t get hot at some point. Will it be enough to challenge Tampa Bay for the top spot?

Braves and Rays still top teams in Ben Verlander’s rankings

5. AL Central

Someone’s got to win, right? It’s looking like that team will be the Twins, though their surprisingly lackluster offense is not making it as easy as it should be. They hold a two-game advantage on the Guardians, who have the fifth-worst OPS in baseball.

This actually might end up one of the fiercest division battles down the stretch, but, given how disappointing the AL Central has been, it’s hard to garner much excitement from the parity. Minnesota’s 340 runs scored would rank third or worse in every division other than its own, where it ranks first.

Carlos Correa crushes solo home run helping Twins cut into Tigers’ lead

6. NL East

The Braves already have a 95.8% chance to win the division, leading the NL East by six games over the surging Marlins. Now, having won 10 of their past 11 games, cooling off the red-hot Reds in the process, the Braves have jumped into the top spot in the Power Rankings as well.

Braves’ Matt Olson hits go-ahead three-run shot vs. Reds

Here’s the latest list:

1) Atlanta Braves (50-27; LW 2)

2) Tampa Bay Rays (54-27; LW 1)

3) Baltimore Orioles (47-29; LW 3)

4) Texas Rangers (47-30; LW 4)

5) San Francisco Giants (44-34; LW 8)

6) Arizona Diamondbacks (47-32; LW 5)

7) Los Angeles Dodgers (43-34; LW 10)

8) Miami Marlins (45-34; LW 7)

9) Cincinnati Reds (41-37; LW 14)

10) New York Yankees (43-35; LW 9)

11) Toronto Blue Jays (43-36; LW 12)

12) Philadelphia Phillies (40-37; LW 11)

13) Houston Astros (42-36; LW 13)

14) Los Angeles Angels (42-37; LW 6)

15) Milwaukee Brewers (40-37; LW 15)

16) Minnesota Twins (40-39; LW 19)

17) Chicago Cubs (37-39; LW 21)

18) Boston Red Sox (40-39; LW 16)

19) Seattle Mariners (37-39; LW 18)

20) Cleveland Guardians (37-40; LW 23)

21) San Diego Padres (37-41; LW 17)

22) New York Mets (35-42; LW 22)

23) Chicago White Sox (34-45; LW 25)

24) Pittsburgh Pirates (35-42; LW 20)

25) Detroit Tigers (33-43; LW 24)

26) St. Louis Cardinals (32-45; LW 26)

27) Colorado Rockies (31-49; LW 27)

28) Washington Nationals (30-47; LW 28)

29) Oakland Athletics (20-60; LW 29)

30) Kansas City Royals (22-56; LW 30)

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.