It’s a straightforward situation, my friends. The MLB trade deadline is two weeks away. A bunch of good players on bad teams will be traded to good teams.
Front offices across the league will lose sleep over whether it’s worth jeopardizing the future for a gambler’s chance at glory this October. We’ll then get a frantic week of transactional chaos, full of empty buzzwords and clickbait rumors.
But what follows is simple: Here are ten players who will define the deadline. Whether they get traded or not, these are the names that will be bandied about, whispered over phone calls and pasted across your favorite sports talk shows until the buzzer sounds on August 2nd.
Any conversation about this deadline starts with the best baseball player on the planet. An avalanche of injuries have tumbled the Angels away from playoff contention, but team owner Arte Moreno still reportedly believes that clinging to Ohtani gives his club the best chance of retaining the impending free agent this winter. If the Halos continue to slide down the standings — they’re 5.5 back of a wild-card spot entering Tuesday’s games — then the calculus would shift and Ohtani would become the most sought-after rental in sports history.
Right now, I’d put the odds of an Ohtani trade at 30%. It would take a gutsy front office willing to part with a serious prospect haul to acquire the two-way superstar, but it only takes one brave leadership group to get the job done. Last year, the Juan Soto sweepstakes slowed the market until the Padres pulled the trigger and the floodgates opened. The Angels could create a similar dynamic this season. In the scenario where the phenomenon gets dealt, the clubs that missed out on Ohtani might feel pressured to keep up, leading to a trade deadline arms race of sorts.
Potential Fits: Any team with a lot of prospects and a desperate ownership group.
Ken Rosenthal provides an update on Shohei Ohtani trade rumors
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak has already announced that his underperforming ball club will be sellers at the deadline. And while his exact phrasing was “turning our focus to the 2024 team”, St. Louis could be tempted to deal the seven time All-Star, who isn’t a free agent until the end of next season, for a massive return.
Goldschmidt hasn’t been quite as preposterously good as he was a year ago, but the reigning NL MVP still boasts an adjusted OPS 32% better than league average, the 27th-best mark in MLB. Now in his age-35 season, Goldschmidt remains one of the league’s most dependable middle-of-the-order threats, a fearsome slugger capable of reshaping any lineup.
From the Cardinals’ perspective, a Goldschmidt trade would also open up first base for rookie slugger Jordan Walker who (1) looks like a future All-Star hitter and (2) has been a historically bad outfield defender. So while it’s risky to trade away a dependable commodity (one of the best hitters in the world over the last decade) for a risky one (any type of pitching), St. Louis desperately needs arms. Goldschmidt could bring back some good ones.
Potential Fits: Brewers, Twins, Rangers, Astros, Yankees
The tree-trunk White Sox hurler had a bizarre 2022; after three years of being a top-20 starter, his numbers tanked. More concerningly, his entire motion looked completely out of sync at times, like his limbs weren’t in communication with one another. Thankfully for Giolito, who is part of a stacked class of free-agent pitchers this winter, things have gotten rosier this season.
He’s walking fewer hitters and inducing more ground balls, which helps explain why his ERA has shrunk from 4.90 in ‘22 to 3.45 so far in ‘23. Giolito hasn’t consistently performed like an ace since his 2019 season, but he’s pitching like a bankable No. 3 starter in a contender’s rotation. When trading for a pitcher at the deadline, sometimes it’s a simple question for front offices: Do we feel comfortable starting this dude in a playoff game? When it comes to Giolito, who is certainly getting dealt by the underwhelming White Sox, that answer is a strong yes.
Potential Fits: Dodgers, Orioles, Reds, D-Backs, Phillies
Even though San Diego is eight games back in the NL Wild Card, they aren’t yet guaranteed sellers. But if that number doesn’t shrink over the next two weeks, don’t be shocked if GM AJ Preller deals away some of his upcoming free agents.
That brings us to Snell, who has been the best pitcher in baseball since mid-May. In his last 11 starts, the mellow-moving left-hander has allowed just 10 runs while striking out 96 hitters in 62 innings. What’s behind the improvement? I think it’s breaking-ball command; Snell has located more curves/sliders on the edges of the strike zone over the last two months and as a result has seen an uptick in hitters chasing. A notorious nibbler, Snell still racks up his walks and his pitch counts, but the 30-year-old could be the best pitcher available this deadline (Ohtani included).
Potential Fits: Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, D-Backs, Phillies
Are you interested in a 32-year-old mid mid-rotation guy currently on the IL with shoulder inflammation who has yet to throw since hitting the shelf on July 2nd? You’re not the only one!
Wacha, who was a late-winter one-year add for San Diego, has inexplicably put together the best year of his big league career. Very little about his pitch velocity, pitch usage or pitch shape data has changed drastically since last year — in fact his fastball is down 1.5 mph compared to ‘22 — but hitters simply haven’t touched the heater. It behooves the Padres to get Wacha healthy ASAP so they can get something for him at the deadline. Do you feel comfortable with him starting a playoff game? I think so?
Potential Fits: Any decent team
Last year, the Brewers sent Hader to San Diego at the deadline and the left-hander struggled initially before steadying himself down the stretch. This year, the 29-year-old is back to his rip-roaring best as one of the few bright spots in San Diego’s soggy slog of a season. This is still one of the best relievers in baseball, which means (1) he’ll get paid on the open market this winter and (2) the Padres could get a few valuable long-term pieces in return at the deadline.
Potential Fits: Rangers, Phillies, Rays, Jays, Marlins
Here’s a list of center fielders who have posted an adjusted OPS at least 35% better than league average this year: Luis Robert Jr., Cody Bellinger. Trust me, I’m shocked too.
After three years of offensive lethargy in Los Angeles, the Dodgers cut ties with the sleepy-eyed former MVP, non-tendering him into the great beyond. The Cubs scooped him up, hoping for a bounce back. Bellinger has responded with his best season since his 2019 MVP year. There’s a mutual option attached to his deal, but all signs point towards the 28-year-old testing free agency this winter. That means the Cubs, currently 8.5 games out of a playoff spot, will look to recoup something from their savvy signing. Belli is still susceptible to good sequencing, but he’s no longer a doofus against lefty pitching and plays a great centerfield.
Potential Fits: Guardians, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Yankees
Despite their season from hell, the Mets plan to contend in 2024. Their best shot at accomplishing that probably involves Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, so don’t expect that aging duo to go anywhere.
But Robertson, who has admirably filled the closer role after Edwin Díaz’s freak injury at the WBC, is a lock to be traded if the Mets opt to sell. The 38-year-old is on a one-year deal and has performed like one of the best relievers in baseball (1.96 ERA in 41 1/3). He’s been dealt at the deadline before; contenders always need more ‘pen help.
Potential Fits: Rangers, Phillies, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox
Every winter, bad teams scoop up low-budget free agents on one-year contracts, hoping that they’ll bounce back and can be swapped for prospects at the deadline. Rarely does that plan go as well as this one has for the Nationals. After getting non-tendered by Detroit last offseason, Candelario has posted the 23rd-best fWAR in baseball, tied with Goldschmidt and Matt Olson.
The 29-year-old’s glove has taken a huge leap forward at the hot corner and he’s performed like an above-average hitter for three and a half months now. Washington, light years back in the standings, has no reason to cling to Candelario, so expect him to end up as a playoff team’s starting 3B against right-handed pitching.
Fits: Marlins, Phillies, Braves, Giants, Yankees
Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.
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