The trade deadline is less than a week away, and while the upcoming week of action should clarify things even further, the market is heating up with its buyers and sellers starting to crystallize. It’s time to take a look around the American League at the teams we most expect to add via trade in the coming days — and how they should be looking to bolster their rosters.
[RELATED: NL contender needs]
(Teams listed in order of current postseason odds via FanGraphs)
Needs:
- bullpen whiffs
- bench slugger
- innings-eater for No. 5 starter spot
With one of the game’s deeper farm systems, Tampa Bay has the prospect capital to pursue a variety of deals of different magnitudes. The club’s absurdly hot first six weeks left its collective offensive numbers in such an inflated state that it’s been somewhat difficult to assess just how much to trust this lineup as October nears. It’s clearly a strong group, though it has not been nearly as dominant since April’s run-scoring barrage. The Rays’ average record over the past few months — and losing first place to Baltimore — largely reflects that.
Even with the offense coming back to Earth, pitching would appear to still be a bigger deadline priority to target with a bullpen that is not nearly as dynamic as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. Rays relievers still are among the league’s best in overall run prevention, but rank 29th in MLB in K/9, leaving them with an obvious need for some late-inning weapons capable of striking out the side with runners in scoring position. The White Sox are an easy match to make with multiple bullpen arms with big stuff still available in Joe Kelly and Keynan Middleton, either of whom would make plenty of sense. The Rays could also use some more depth in the rotation behind their strong first four to help ease the bullpen burden down the stretch — Lance Lynn might be a bit expensive for their taste, but Michael Lorenzen could fit this role well.
They’ll also have to hope Yandy Díaz’s injury Tuesday night isn’t anything serious — manager Kevin Cash called the initial MRI results “encouraging” — or the lineup might be of bigger concern than originally thought.
Needs:
- pitcher to start a playoff game
- reliever whose name you’ve heard of that can get high-leverage outs
We’ll never know for sure what timeline general manager Mike Elias had in mind for the robust rebuild the Orioles underwent in the early part of his tenure. Did he really expect this team to vault from a 110 losses in 2021 to challenging for the best record in the American League two years later? No matter the plan, what’s important now is how the Baltimore front office chooses to take advantage of the opportunity at hand. With so much of the roster under team control for the foreseeable future, the contention window is about to open for a significant period of time. But even with all the talent in the fold for the long haul, there’s no guarantee the Orioles will be arriving at any trade deadline in the near future in as strong a position in the gauntlet AL East as they do this season. Add in the fact that they boast such an absurd amount of position player talent that it almost seems irresponsible to not cash in some of it to help other parts of the roster, and you have easily one of the most fascinating teams to watch in the coming days.
Ken Rosenthal on if the Orioles will be aggressive at the trade deadline
Acquiring flamethrowing righty Shintaro Fujinami was a start, though his shaky first couple outings with the Birds are all the more reminder that he should merely be part of, and not the solution for the bullpen bridge to All-Stars Yennier Canó and Félix Bautista at the back end. In addition to bolstering Brandon Hyde’s bullpen, the Orioles badly need a starting pitcher that they’d actually feel good about giving the ball to for a start in October. You could argue an elite arm might not even be available at the deadline, but the Orioles have the prospect pieces to go after names we might not even realize are on the market — think Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Either way, whether Elias thought the O’s already would be in the thick of a pennant race this quickly shouldn’t affect his approach right now. It’s time to start going for it in Birdland.
Needs:
- impact starting pitching
- right-handed power bat
- LHH bench bat
An array of injuries impacting every corner of the roster have kept the defending champions from their traditional juggernaut status, but they remain squarely in the mix for yet another AL West title and are expected to pursue external upgrades in the coming days. Framber Valdez has dutifully replaced Justin Verlander as the bona fide ace atop this rotation, though Cristian Javier has taken a mild step back in his first full year in the rotation, while rookie right-hander Hunter Brown has shown flashes of greatness with some spotty starts mixed in. It’s no surprise that Houston’s in-house options JP France and Brandon Bielak have largely done their jobs on the back end, but this rotation isn’t quite as intimidating as it’s been in recent years. Houston should be plenty motivated to pursue a top-end name like the Cubs‘ Marcus Stroman or the Padres’ Blake Snell — should their respective teams decide to sell — though it’s unclear if the organization has the farm system depth to land any of the top options.
On offense, the returns of Yordan Álvarez and José Altuve will immediately re-establish the lineup as one of the AL’s best, but Michael Brantley’s continued absence still leaves something to be desired as you go further down the order. This feels like a nice potential landing spot for one of the Rockies sluggers, CJ Cron or Randal Grichuk, or maybe Tommy Pham or Mark Canha from the Mets.
‘I still think the Houston Astros are the best team built for the postseason’
Needs:
- OBP skills
- right-handed bat
- someone who can steal a base
- LHP of some variety
One of the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star Break, Minnesota has gained some separation from Cleveland atop the AL Central as the deadline approaches. This roster might already be good enough to comfortably win a historically terrible division, but it doesn’t necessarily look like one geared for a deep postseason push. In turn, the Twins should have every motivation to act aggressively over the next week.
The pitching staff has carried them thus far, with one of baseball’s best rotations and one of its most underrated bullpens headlined by flamethrower Jhoan Durán. The offense, meanwhile, has underwhelmed to a somewhat stunning degree, with the production hardly matching the high-profile names penciled into the lineup on a daily basis. The challenge for Minnesota will be to find offensive upgrades at a deadline when far more impactful pitching is projected to be on the market than offensive difference-makers.
Beyond the team needs, it’s worth considering how last year’s disastrous deadline may inform the Twins’ strategy this time around. Minnesota was in a tremendously similar position a year ago — a few games over .500 and hanging onto the division lead — when it shipped out seven players to Baltimore and Cincinnati, respectively, in exchange for Jorge López and Tyler Mahle. Those outgoing packages included the likes of 2023 breakout stars Canó, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (among others). That’s surely been a tough pill to swallow with Mahle undergoing Tommy John surgery and López regressing to the point that he was just dealt to the Marlins for right-handed reliever Dylan Floro — not to mention the club collapsing over the final two months of last season.
To be clear, the ugly outcomes of those deals shouldn’t be an excuse to not improve this year’s club when a division title is once again within reach. However, it does put more pressure on Minnesota to make moves that both help now and don’t hurt so much in the future.
Needs:
- multiple pitchers who can reliably record outs in Major League Baseball games
It’s not all that complicated here. This team rakes, but not even one of the best lineups in baseball can consistently outscore a bullpen that continues to leave the door open for opponents to storm back late in games. The rotation has largely held up without Jacob deGrom as the summer as rolled on, though the occasional clunker from a starter becomes all the more costly when an already-thin bullpen has to be taxed beyond its usual responsibilities.
The good news is that there’s no secret to Texas’ intentions. Everything about the ways the Rangers have acted — and spent — have indicated how all-in they are for 2023 and the short-term. There’s no turning back now. The only question is to what degree will their aggression and ambition drive them to acquire the best among what could end up being a very limited trade market in terms of impact players — especially if rival clubs know how desperate they are to capitalize on their current position in the standings. They already jumped the market in acquiring Aroldis Chapman from Kansas City, and that has largely paid dividends. But there’s much more to be done here to help manager Bruce Bochy sleep easier at night as he tries to navigate the stretch run. They are an excellent candidate to link up with either St. Louis or Chicago and try to land a blockbuster package with both a starter and reliever included. No matter who the trade partner is, expect GM Chris Young to be scouring every corner of the market with ravenous intent to try to give this team its best chance to pursue a pennant in October.
Marcus Semien launches deep HR to increase Rangers’ lead over Astros
Needs
- relievers who can keep the ball in the yard
- power off the bench
As frustrating as Alek Manoah’s wayward season has been to watch, the Blue Jays are actually in a decent spot if his struggles continue with lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu slated to return from Tommy John surgery in the coming weeks. Ryu gives Toronto a sixth capable starter if Manoah remains in the rotation, which would seem to put the Blue Jays in position to focus their deadline energy on adding in other areas. They already acquired hard-throwing lefty Genesis Cabrera from St. Louis to pair with the quietly excellent Tim Mayza as the go-to southpaws coming out of the bullpen, but there’s likely still more room for more improvement on the relief front.
More intriguing is how Toronto decides to upgrade its offense — if at all. It’s largely been a good lineup, but not exactly the juggernaut some may have hoped it could be. This can largely be attributed to underperformance from outfielders Daulton Varsho and George Springer and big steps back at the plate from Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen. At the same time, it’s not like any of those guys are about to fully lose their jobs, so what really makes sense to add here offensively? Perhaps a power bat for the bench, but continuing to add depth in the bullpen feels like the likeliest course of action for Toronto.
Needs:
- pitching of all kinds
- LHH bench-bat
- players who will help in 2024 and beyond
The trade of utilityman Enrique Hernández to his former team in Los Angeles might look like a flashy move on the surface, but this is more of a practical first step for what could be a fascinating deadline for GM Chaim Bloom. With Trevor Story slated to return from the IL soon, Hernández’s playing time was about to get cut even further than it already had been due to how poorly he’d been hitting all season. Most importantly, Hernández being shipped elsewhere does nothing to suggest that the Red Sox are in sell mode. If anything, it clears the way for Story (and eventually prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, currently raking in Triple-A while playing both infield and outfield consistently), and completes one urgent order of business well in advance of the deadline.
As for additions, a rash of injuries — some more predictable than others — have left Boston in dire need of pitching of all kinds. Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman, two solid Triple-A relievers acquired for Hernández, certainly bolster the bullpen depth, but Boston needs starting pitching far more severely. This team might not be good enough for it to be worth pursuing the biggest names on the market, but it’s also too good to just sit around and do nothing while the rest of the division loads up even further.
Needs:
- actual outfielder who plays outfield
- athletic position player
- reliever who throws strikes
Sweeping one of the two worst teams in baseball at home over the weekend may have kept the season afloat, but this roster isn’t in any better shape than it was a week ago when everyone was in full-blown panic mode. That’s not to say this season is entirely doomed, but a shake-up does appear necessary in some form to spark a legitimate run in the second half.
It’s all too common to see teams who don’t add significant pieces in July refer to key returning injured players as their “big deadline addition”, and Aaron Judge’s impending return from the IL is setting up to be the latest and greatest example. While his reintroduction to the roster is obviously a massive deal, the state of the Yankees lineup is still questionable at best. Left field remains a baffling revolving door, while production from veterans like Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu has ranged from inconsistent to downright bad. Somewhat ironically is that the non-Judge hitter who has been most consistent this season has been the guy the Yankees have been dangling in trade talks for over a year in an effort to upgrade the roster elsewhere: Gleyber Torres. Does it make sense to flip Torres now when he’s one of the few bats they can count on? Probably not.
Will the Yankees miss the MLB postseason for the first time since 2016?
Also concerning is a bullpen that was downright nails for the first three months has been starting to show some serious cracks, leaving a part of the roster thought to be an obvious strength in some degree of uneasiness. Meanwhile, the return of Carlos Rodón hasn’t quite stabilized the rotation to the degree the club hoped — at least not yet. All of which is to say: The Yankees already have a difficult roster to maneuver midseason, but expect them to explore all avenues on the trade market in an effort to inject some spark into a team that has largely been stuck in the mud.
Needs:
- relief pitching
- injury luck
- baseball gods to smile down upon them for once
I fully believe GM Perry Minasian was appropriately preparing behind the scenes for the scenario where Shohei Ohtani could be traded, by taking calls from around the league and constructing what potential deals would look like as the deadline approached. It is the responsible thing to do. What I did not buy is that the Angels were far enough out of it that owner Arte Moreno — who would obviously be making the final decision either way — was going to punt on seemingly his last chance to make a postseason push with the best player on earth.
Why Shohei Ohtani will not sign with a team outside of California
In turn, the far less exciting, albeit every bit as crucial question remained: If Ohtani was staying put, what did the Angels need most to finally help get him to the postseason? The answer was the same that it’s been since the day he arrived in Anaheim six years ago: pitching. Any team is capable of adding around the margins, but the Angels had enough prospect firepower to win out a bidding war for Lucas Giolito. Color me impressed. They have more work to do, on the field and off, but it’s great to see that they’re going to go out swinging with Ohtani regardless of whether he’s headed elsewhere this winter.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He’s a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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