“Will History Repeat Itself?” in 2023? NFL odds, picks, predictions

The NFL is back, baby! With the Hall of Fame Game officially in the books, the 2022 season is now a distant memory.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t relive a few moments from last season. And one sportsbook is letting you wager on if any of those wacky moments from last season can actually happen again.

DraftKings Sportsbook has put out odds on if history can repeat itself. Basically, whether teams and players can repeat performances of various milestones that occurred last season.

Let’s look at some of the fun odds and three bets from Jason McIntyre.

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Will History Repeat Itself odds*

QUARTERBACK

D. Prescott 15+ regular-season INTs thrown: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

J. Burrow 700+ regular-season passing yards vs. PIT Steelers: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

J. Burrow 4+ INTs thrown in any regular-season game: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)

J. Allen longest regular-season completion: 98+ Yards: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)

RUNNING BACK

D. Henry 100+ rushing yards in each regular-season game vs. IND Colts: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

D. Henry 1+ regular-season passing TD: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)

C. McCaffrey record a rushing/receiving TD and a pass TD in any single regular-season game: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)

Kenneth Walker III 100+ rushing yards in SEA Seahawks’ last 3 regular-season games: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

J. Jefferson 184+ receiving yards on the road at GB Packers: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)

C. Kupp 100+ receiving yards in each of LA Rams’ first 2 regular-season games: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)

T. Kelce 4+ receiving TDs in any regular-season game: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)

D. Adams 125+ receiving yards in each regular-season game vs. LA Chargers: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)

TEAM

TB Buccaneers no rushing TDs in first 3 regular-season games: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)

MIN Vikings to win after trailing by 33+ points: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

IND Colts and HOU Texans same number of regular-season points scored: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

MIN Vikings and DET Lions same number of regular-season points allowed: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

REGULAR SEASON
Any Week 1 game to end in a tie: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)

Any Week 1 game to end in a tie: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)

Any team to score 2+ kick return TDs vs. NE Patriots in any regular-season game: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)

*odds as of 8/3/2023

Picks via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Derrick Henry 1+ passing touchdown (+650)

Here’s an oddity: Derrick Henry has thrown a TD pass in three of the last four seasons, including playoffs. Mike Vrabel has been the coach all of those seasons. While the running back has attempted just seven passes in the NFL, three have gone for touchdowns.

Remember, Vrabel spent many years in New England, where he caught 10 touchdown passes as a defensive player, including twice in the Super Bowl. The Titans will wait for just the perfect moment with the defense loaded up in the red zone for Henry to toss to a wide-open tight end. 

The downside is that the price should be closer to +800, and there’s always the risk Henry gets hurt. Also, we don’t know if the Titans will dial up gadget plays for backup QB Malik Willis, assuming the 2022 third-round pick isn’t traded this preseason.

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Josh Allen longest regular-season completion 98+ yards (+750)

This is a lottery ticket, so it’s good for you to know that going in. QBs like Jeff Garcia, Trent Green and Gus Frerotte have had the longest TD pass of the season before (all 99 yards), and the odds to bet one of them to have pulled it off would have been massive. Drew Lock threw a 92-yarder in 2020, showing that anyone can get lucky and complete a long TD pass. 

Working in Allen’s favor is his arm, how often he throws deep (ninth in the NFL in 20+ yard air completions last season; sixth in 2021), and the game-breaking ability of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.

All it takes is one play.

Cooper Kupp 100+ receiving yards in Rams’ first 2 games (+300)

This is all about the schedule and the woeful state of the Rams’ defense. This is arguably the worst defensive unit in the NFC because, outside Aaron Donald, there isn’t much talent at any level. As such, the Rams will be an Over team this year, having to score to keep up because they can’t stop anyone. 

Kupp is coming off a season in which he only played nine games, but in 2021, he was dominant with 145 catches for 1947 yards and 16 TDs. 

Kupp has started the season with back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games in the last two seasons. He’s Matt Stafford’s safety blanket and will be targeted at least a dozen times.

Of course, this depends on Kupp’s health, as he is dealing with a hamstring scare this week. If he’s healthy going into Week 1, I love this wager.